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elections

Longshot

Election season has begun, maybe election season never ends.

The Republican primary likely won't be exciting - if Trump backs Vance or Rubio or both, they'll have no serious challenge.

The Democrat field is wide open - Gavin Newsom is the clear frontrunner now, but when has the clear frontrunner this far out held on to it? History says it's best to be off the radar at this point.

What do Democrats want? The list is long but you know the basics - someone pro-choice, anti-gun, environmentally friendly, lgbtq friendly, etc. Most importantly, they want someone who can win it all.

Who can win it all? Maybe it would help to take a look at the last 3 to do it.

Bill Clinton - former governor. 'Southern' guy appeal to traditionally red areas. (Arkansas, 6 EVs).

Barack Obama - African american senator - with a focus on Healthcare. (Illinois, 19 EVs)

Joe Biden - former Senator. Friends with (and owes nomination victory to) James Clyburn. (Pennsylvania, 19 EVs)

Mix all that together and we're looking for a 'Southern' African american senator, with a focus on Healthcare, who is friends with James Clyburn, from a state with around 15 EVs. How about someone without any ties to scandals or ridiculous statements, someone who is interview-friendly, someone who does not like Trump but also has not centered their entire political identity around that? A seemingly true believer of the Democrat partys basic platform who is currently 'off the radar'.

What if this person existed?

What if they were .6 cents to the dollar to win the Democrat party nomination - behind LeBron James, behind Liz Cheney, even with Hunter Biden?

I would personally prefer Democrats nominate(appoint) a terrible candidate again, I would rather that hypothetical 165/1 stay put - but as your financial advisor/life coach I would advise you to put at least a 20 on it.

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Friday offtopic. Africa just before the Scramble

The map above shows roughly who controlled what parts of Africa in 1880.
This is just 5 years before the Berlin Conference in 1885 that would launch the so-called “Scramble for Africa,” of full European domination and conquest of the continent.

However, as you can clearly see in the map above European colonisation was already well underway at this point.
(Source)

Entry tags:

surveillance,
usa

Security or surveillance?

Recent proposals by the US administration to tighten entry requirements should concern anyone who cares about civil liberties and personal privacy. Under the new rules, visitors seeking short-term entry would be required to disclose years of social media activity, contact details, and information about family members. This represents a significant expansion of state surveillance, with little clarity on how the data would be collected or used.

The stated aim is national security, but such measures risk becoming arbitrary and authoritarian. Decisions about who constitutes the “wrong kind” of visitor could easily extend beyond genuine security threats to lawful expression and political opinion. Many people have publicly expressed views that those in power might dislike; that alone should never be grounds for scrutiny or exclusion.

Moreover, the policy is unlikely to achieve its stated goal. Most violent crime in the US is committed by its own citizens, not foreign visitors. These proposals appear impractical, intrusive, and counterproductive, potentially deterring travel without making anyone safer. If safety is truly the priority, attention would be better directed at domestic issues that pose far greater and well-documented risks.

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Friday offtopic. The Bro Map Of America

What do east coast people call each other?

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Some scenarios for the future of the collective West

For centuries the West has held outsized global power, even though Western societies were always a demographic minority. That dominance is now slipping, and although the world is still built on Western foundations (established institutions, science, law, finance) the West can no longer assume it sets the terms for everyone else. The real question is what kind of Western dominance is fading, and what might replace it.

After 1945 the USA forged a politically unified West, but then diluted that cohesion by framing itself as leader of the entire Free World, defined mostly by what it opposed. This logic survived the Cold War and eventually turned into a universalist liberal project that depended on having enemies to justify itself. When liberal democracy failed to spread globally (and when the US electorate doubled down on America First) the gap between Western ambitions and Western capabilities became impossible to ignore.

The West now faces three paths.

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